September 20 news, according to foreign media reports, analyst Malcolm Penn has reduced his view on the global chip market to a 4% growth in 2022, followed by a 22% contraction in 2023.MPX4115AP

As CEO and founder of Future Horizons, Penn has been warning of a 17th market recession (18 months in) coming. On the economy, industry demand, capital spending and average selling price (ASP), "every warning light is flashing red right now," he noted during a webinar, according to the report. Penn said the outlook is rarely worse than that , especially as the global economy heads toward recession and inflation at the same time.

He also said that for several quarters, chip unit shipments have grown faster than the long-term average, meaning customers have been repeating orders and committing parts to inventory. As customers began to cut back on orders, the average selling price also fell. "Average selling prices have started to plummet in June," said Penn, which is earlier than he expected in the third quarter of 2022.

Penn further stated that IC ASP fell 18.1% from a peak of $1.350 in 2Q22 to $1.105 at the end of the quarter due to a 20.2% plunge in memory prices. It's only a matter of time before average selling prices for logic, microchips and analog devices drop in the third quarter of 2022, Penn said.MPX4115AP

In terms of capital expenditures, Penn noted that it has been at an all-time high for several years -- 23% of sales, compared to the long-term average of about 13% of sales. Much of this spending will create capacity when it's not needed, Penn stressed. During the webinar, Penn concluded that the "crash" came slightly earlier, which led to a downward revision in growth forecasts. In January 2022, he predicted that the chip market would grow by 4% to 14%, most likely 10%. Today, Penn sees growth in the range of 2% to 6% in 2022, with the most likely figure being the median.