On November 23, there was a warning of oversupply of automotive chips that were originally out of stock. According to Taiwan Economic Daily, Morgan Stanley Securities pointed out in the latest Asia-Pacific automotive semiconductor report that some automotive semiconductors such as MCU and CIS suppliers, including Renesas Semiconductor and ON Semiconductor, are currently cutting some of the first Chip test orders in the fourth quarter show that automotive chips are no longer out of stock.

Analysts pointed out that by comparing the global automotive semiconductor revenue trends and changes in automotive production, it can be found that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of automotive semiconductor revenue in recent years is as high as 20%, while automotive production is only 10%.

According to this trend, the oversupply of automotive semiconductors should have occurred as early as the end of 2020 and early 2021. However, due to the impact of the global new crown epidemic at that time, transportation was not smooth or even supply was cut off, resulting in an extreme shortage of automotive chips, which continued to be in short supply. goods.

It is reported that with the gradual easing of the impact of transportation, coupled with TSMC's substantial increase in the production of automotive chips in the third quarter, and the impact of market demand in mainland China, which accounts for 50-60% of global electric vehicle sales, automotive chips have now become With full production, the chip shortage problem that has plagued the automotive industry for a long time has officially ended. Among them, TSMC's output of automotive semiconductor wafers in the third quarter increased by 82% year-on-year, 140% higher than before the epidemic.

Today, according to the latest data from AutoForecast Solutions (hereinafter referred to as "AFS"), an auto industry data forecasting company, as of November 20, the global auto market has lost about 4,055,100 vehicles this year due to a shortage of chips. AFS predicts that by the end of this year, the cumulative reduction in the global auto market will climb to 4,422,800 units.

AFS expects North American production to drop by 79,000 vehicles last week due to chip shortages. AFS pointed out that since the beginning of this year, China has cut production of 172,900 vehicles due to lack of cores. Compared with production cuts of more than 1 million units in North America and Europe, China's auto production has been relatively unaffected by the chip crisis.

According to AFS data, in 2021, due to the shortage of chips, the global auto market will reduce production by about 10.2 million units. At that time, AFS expected that 2022 may be smoother than 2021. As 2022 draws to a close, AFS's prediction at the time seems to have been confirmed, and the reduction in global car production in 2022 is likely to be less than half of that in 2021.

Overall, as the Morgan Stanley report shows, the shortage of some automotive chips has been alleviated. It was previously reported that automakers and semiconductor suppliers are working to prevent such severe shortages in the future. Automakers are adjusting their just-in-time inventory models. Automakers are also working more closely with semiconductor suppliers to communicate their short- and long-term needs. Semiconductors will become even more important to automakers as electric vehicles and driver assistance technologies continue to evolve.

The chip shortage doesn't appear to be over in 2022, though. In October, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares said tight semiconductor supply is expected to continue through the end of next year. Polestar chief executive Thomas Ingenlath also expects parts shortages to continue into next year. Toyota also lowered its global production target for the current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) from 9.7 million to 9.2 million due to a persistent shortage of semiconductor chips.